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Seven OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday, November 1, to keep their oil production targets unchanged for December, extending a pause in previous output increases, AnewZ reported.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will keep their combined production target at 31.01 million barrels per day. The targets for each country are:
- Saudi Arabia — 10.478 million barrels per day;
- Russia — 9.949 million barrels per day;
- Iraq — 4.431 million barrels per day;
- Kuwait — 2.676 million barrels per day;
- Kazakhstan — 1.628 million barrels per day;
- Algeria — 1.007 million barrels per day;
- Oman — 841,000 barrels per day.
OPEC said the decision reaffirmed its commitment to market stability. However, production targets do not fully reflect the volumes of oil actually delivered to the market. The war involving Iran has disrupted exports from Gulf countries, while most of the seven producers are pumping below their permitted levels. Brent crude fell 3.2% to $109.75 a barrel on Monday morning, November 2.
According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report for October, countries participating in the broader OPEC+ agreement produced 39.07 million barrels per day in September, an increase of about 903,000 barrels per day from August. But the rise in output did not ease pressure on global supply.
The report said Brent crude averaged $102.02 a barrel in September, up $13.94 from August. Disruptions to supplies in the Middle East and concerns about shipping routes pushed prices higher.
According to OPEC, freight rates for very large crude carriers travelling from the Middle East to Asia rose 88% in September. Disruptions were particularly severe in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.
According to the World Trade Organization’s trade monitoring indicators for the Strait of Hormuz, the index for vessels departing to export crude oil remained at zero throughout October 2026. On October 31, 2025, the seven-day average stood at 99.03. These figures illustrate the gap between production targets and the oil that actually reaches buyers: disruptions to shipping routes and higher transport costs can affect global supply and prices.
Talks contribute to lower oil prices
Oil prices fell by more than 3% on November 2, as talks between Iran and Qatar and hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East weighed on the market.
Brent futures fell by $3.68 to $109.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $3.43 to $100.69 a barrel at 08:07 Baku time, Reuters reported.
Iranian and Qatari officials held talks for a third consecutive day. The discussions raised expectations of an agreement that could reduce the risk of further disruption to regional oil supplies.
Oil had risen in October amid concerns about prolonged supply disruptions. Monday’s decline showed that diplomatic developments could have a greater influence on market sentiment than the OPEC+ production decision.
Impact of global prices on Azerbaijani oil
Azerbaijan was not among the seven countries that agreed to keep their December production targets unchanged, but it is a member of the broader OPEC+ alliance. The country’s oil sector is therefore sensitive to changes in global prices.
Disruptions in the Middle East have strengthened demand for alternative sources of crude, benefiting Azerbaijan’s oil exports. According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report for October, the premium for Azeri Light crude rose by $5.25 in September to $11.26 above the North Sea Dated benchmark.
Higher prices do not necessarily mean export revenues will rise. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy said the country produced 19.9 million tonnes of oil and condensate in January-September 2026, down 3.9% from the same period last year. Oil exports fell 10.9% to 15.5 million tonnes.
The key question for Azerbaijan, therefore, is whether rising international oil prices will offset the decline in export volumes.
OPEC+ will meet again on November 29 to review market conditions and assess production plans ahead of 2027. For now, oil prices may depend more on diplomacy and the restoration of key shipping routes than on production quotas. The market will be watching the progress of Iran-Qatar talks and the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
