OMM Newsroom
Voters across the United States will go to the polls on Nov. 3 in midterm elections that could reshape Congress and determine how much of his legislative agenda President Donald Trump can advance during the final two years of his term, Anadolu Agency reported.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats have 45 and are joined in their caucus by two independents, giving them 47 votes. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
Polling points to close races in several states held by Republicans, while Democrats are defending seats in states that backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Eight contests are drawing particular attention.
Contests in Michigan, Maine, Texas and Ohio
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is challenging former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted Oct. 19-22 found El-Sayed ahead 51.4% to 45.1% among 600 likely voters, with 3.6% undecided. The margin of error was four percentage points.
Michigan’s other Senate seat was decided by 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast in 2024, when Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Rogers. El-Sayed, a former public health official, would become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate if he wins. He has rejected claims that his faith would create “double loyalty,” noting that John F. Kennedy, a Catholic, faced similar allegations during his 1960 presidential campaign.
In Maine, five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate. A Marist poll released Tuesday and conducted Oct. 22-25 showed Jackson with 49% support among likely voters, against 47% for Collins. The margin of error was 6.6 percentage points.
Collins won her 2020 election with 51% of the vote, defeating Democrat Sara Gideon, who received about 42%. Maine backed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024, 52.4% to 45.5%. Collins has presented herself to voters as a powerful centrist who brings lucrative benefits to the state. Jackson has questioned that positioning, saying Collins largely supports Trump’s agenda.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is running against Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988, making a victory there a major upset.
A Univision/YouGov poll released Tuesday, based on 1,000 registered voters surveyed Oct. 13-21, showed Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 45%. The margin of error was 3.8 percentage points. Talarico has made his Christian faith a prominent part of his campaign and has accused Paxton of corruption. Paxton has Trump’s endorsement and has benefited from heavy campaign spending by billionaire Elon Musk, whose companies are based in Texas.
Texas, the country’s second-largest state by population, has more than 19 million registered voters, a 2.2% increase from the 2024 presidential election. In that election, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred 53.1% to 44.6%.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to Congress against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance after Vance gave up his seat to become vice president. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 21-22 showed Brown ahead 47% to 44% among 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. A “Fox News” poll conducted Oct. 15-19 put Brown ahead 52% to 47% among 1,592 likely voters.
Brown lost his 2024 re-election bid to Republican Bernie Moreno, who received 50.1% of the vote against Brown’s 46.5%. Trump carried Ohio by about 11 percentage points that year. Brown has made opposition to new data centres a pillar of his campaign, while Husted has criticised Democratic energy and immigration policies.
Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina
In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a state that uses ranked-choice voting. A Data for Progress survey conducted Oct. 8-16 found Peltola with 47% of first-choice support, compared with 44% for Sullivan, among 694 likely voters. A separate Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 14-15 showed Peltola leading 48% to 47% among 578 registered voters, within the poll’s 4.1-point margin of error.
Sullivan won re-election in 2020 with about 54% of the vote, defeating independent Al Gross, who received 41%. Alaska leans heavily Republican, but gas and diesel prices have been higher than in the 48 contiguous states since the start of the Iran war, squeezing households and potentially prompting some voters to reconsider their choices.
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running against Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek for the Iowa seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 21-22 showed Hinson leading 47% to 45% among 1,200 likely voters. A Marist survey conducted Oct. 8-11 had Turek ahead 48% to 45% among likely voters.
Ernst secured re-election in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote, against 45.2% for Democrat Theresa Greenfield. Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points in 2024. Farmers make up a large constituency in the state, and many who supported Trump two years ago are unhappy with the effect of tariffs and high fuel prices on their finances.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Adam Hamilton, a Democratic Methodist pastor. The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 13-14 showed Marshall ahead 48% to 47% among 1,200 likely voters. An earlier YouGov poll, conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 4, put Hamilton ahead 48% to 45%.
The race has attracted an estimated $71 million in planned political advertising, according to “The Associated Press”. Both parties are investing heavily in Kansas, which Trump carried by about 16 percentage points in 2024.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, for the North Carolina seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. A Quantus Insights poll conducted Oct. 24-25 showed Cooper leading 51.4% to 42.8% among 722 likely voters, with 3.4% undecided. A Harper Polling survey conducted Oct. 20 put Cooper ahead 49% to 39%.
National Republicans recently withdrew their campaign spending from North Carolina, signalling that they consider the seat likely lost. The state was closely contested in the 2024 presidential election: Trump received 50.86% of the vote and Harris 47.65%. More than 5.7 million ballots were cast, representing turnout of 73.7% among registered voters.
Other races to watch
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins in a state Trump won in 2024. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll conducted Oct. 7-15 showed Ossoff leading 48% to 40% among 1,000 likely voters, with 12% undecided. Ossoff has campaigned against what he calls corruption and is seen as a possible Democratic presidential candidate in the years ahead.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running against former Republican Sen. John Sununu for the seat being vacated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20-23 showed Pappas leading 50% to 44% among likely voters.
Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska. A GBAO poll conducted Oct. 18-22 showed Osborn leading 46% to 45% among 800 likely voters, within the margin of error. Osborn has not committed to caucusing with either major party, potentially complicating calculations over control of the Senate.
