OMM Newsroom
Armenia could face higher gas prices, lower remittances and tighter restrictions on migrant workers if it suspends its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The risks are outlined in a new report examining the possible consequences of closer ties with the European Union, AnewZ reports.
The report, prepared by representatives of Eurasian intergovernmental bodies from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, assesses the potential economic impact of Armenia moving further away from the Moscow-led bloc.
Gas prices could nearly double
One of the main risks identified in the report is a sharp rise in the price of Russian natural gas. Armenia currently buys 1,000 cubic meters of gas from Russia at a preferential price of $177.50.
If Armenia suspends its EAEU membership, gas prices could reach $300, according to the report. Armenia’s annual gas bill could then rise from about $389 million to $657.5 million.
The projections are based on current market assumptions. The report says prices could rise further depending on conditions in global energy markets.
Higher gas costs could also increase production expenses for businesses and utility bills for households, intensify inflationary pressure and slow economic growth.
Remittances from Russia could fall by more than half
The report also warns that transfers sent home by Armenian citizens working abroad, particularly in Russia, could decline sharply. If Armenia loses preferential terms linked to its EAEU membership, remittances from Russia could fall to $1.8 billion from $3.88 billion in 2025.
Total remittances to Armenia from EAEU countries are projected to drop from $3.95 billion to about $1.85 billion. The figures point to Armenia’s reliance on Russia for remittances and as a key destination for migrant workers.
According to the Eurasian Economic Commission, about 124,600 of the 126,900 Armenian citizens working in EAEU countries in 2025 were employed in Russia. That was more than 98% of the total.
The report says suspending membership could mean Armenian citizens lose labor-market privileges within the bloc and become subject to rules applied to citizens of non-member countries, including possible work quotas. Tax terms for Armenian citizens and Armenian goods entering EAEU markets could also become less favorable.
As Armenia seeks closer ties with the European Union, it is also maintaining its long-standing economic and political links with Russia and other EAEU members. Supporters of deeper integration with the EU point to potential increases in investment, governance reforms and broader trade opportunities. Critics say moving away from the EAEU too quickly could cause significant economic disruption, particularly in energy supplies, employment and remittances.
No decision has been made to suspend Armenia’s EAEU membership. The report highlights the potential financial consequences of changing the country’s economic partnerships.
The assessment could intensify debate in Yerevan over whether the long-term benefits of closer integration with the European Union outweigh the risks of weakening economic ties with Russia. Russia is Armenia’s main energy supplier and the primary destination for its migrant workers.
