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The United States and Iran are quietly negotiating an agreement that could avert a return to all-out war and pave the way for broader talks, as diplomatic activity has intensified since Tuesday’s midterm elections.
President Donald Trump told “CNN” on Sunday that renewed US attacks were “highly unlikely” if Tehran made progress toward an agreement on its nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with “CBS”’s “60 Minutes”, he said he was “not looking to” escalate the war.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that he “wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough”. Trump has also indicated that the military option remains available. Qatar is mediating the discussions, and both sides have disclosed little about them.
Midterm losses add pressure to negotiations
Republican losses in the elections have added a political dimension to the talks. Vice President JD Vance said afterward that the war was among the reasons Republicans lost.
Trump told “60 Minutes” he did not disagree with Vance’s assessment, acknowledging that voters “didn’t like the war”. He strongly defended the decision to attack Iran, saying that if he had to make it again, his answer would be “an emphatic yes”.
Iran has sought to use the election results to strengthen its negotiating position. “American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday.
Trump continues to express confidence in the US military position, while Iran has repeatedly threatened to widen the conflict geographically if it is attacked again.
Nuclear demands and control of the Strait of Hormuz
Trump wants Iran’s nuclear program eliminated, while Tehran regards the program as a matter of national sovereignty. Iran has publicly said it will not negotiate with Washington over the program or reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless seven preconditions are met. These include ending the war on “all fronts” and lifting a maritime blockade; the full list of conditions has not been made public.
Hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium, material that could be used to produce a nuclear weapon, remain hidden somewhere in Iran. Tehran has used the stockpile as leverage in negotiations. Reports indicate Washington wants the uranium diluted or transferred to another country for safekeeping, but it is unclear how far the sides have progressed on the issue. Iran says its nuclear program is intended to generate energy, not serve military purposes.
Iran also has economic demands. US sanctions have made it increasingly difficult for the country, one of the world’s largest oil producers, to sell crude on global markets. Billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in foreign banks remain frozen. Washington appears to be considering easing restrictions, which could help Tehran address severe economic pressure on its population amid record inflation.
Tehran is also seeking compensation from the US for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his senior military commanders by the US and Israel at the start of the war in February.
Qatar is circulating a framework document that Washington and Tehran are amending. The process has been underway for weeks, and possibly months, but has accelerated in recent days amid concerns about fresh strikes. Trump is expected to meet Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Washington on Monday.
Distrust and regional tensions cloud prospects for a deal
Neither side has so far shown a willingness to yield on its demands. Before leaving Sunday for a Group of Seven foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris, Rubio said the talks had not been productive, describing Iran’s demands as “not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic”.
After successive rounds of open conflict, Tehran’s trust in Washington has nearly disappeared. Iran has not forgotten that the conflict began while nuclear talks with the US were underway. It fears that giving up leverage could leave it exposed to further US and Israeli strikes without effective negotiating tools. Opening the Strait of Hormuz and relinquishing control of the enriched uranium could, in that scenario, weaken Iran’s position further.
Trump is balancing relations with Arab partners and Israel, which both consider Iran a threat, and faces scrutiny if he ends the war without a major concession from Tehran. Iran, meanwhile, wants to protect its regional allies and proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. The militias have fought for the Islamic Republic in the region and remain loyal to Tehran, but have faced existential pressure over the past three years.
In September, Iran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, launched a lightning offensive and captured another key maritime chokepoint, Bab al-Mandeb in the Red Sea, giving Tehran potential influence over another waterway. The Houthis have since stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in response to Riyadh providing military support to the Yemeni government.
The US wants to prevent Iran from developing the capabilities to build a nuclear weapon, including through access to advanced equipment. Iran’s Arab neighbours are divided over an agreement that might give Tehran too much power and strengthen its aspirations to regional hegemony.
Iran wants to administer the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping corridor through which wealthy Arab states export most of their oil and gas. Control would give Tehran significant influence over traffic into and out of the region. The US, which wants waterways to remain open, would be reluctant to formalise what it considers one of Iran’s major gains from the war.
Risk of renewed fighting remains
There have been some attacks, but both sides have played them down, potentially signalling that neither wants to derail the talks. Some media reports say the negotiations have moved closer to agreement. “The New York Times” has reported that Iran is willing to resume nuclear negotiations. There has been no independent confirmation; any Iranian concession on its nuclear program, or willingness even to discuss it, would be viewed as a breakthrough.
Despite reports of progress, the risk of all-out war remains. The US maintains a substantial military presence in the Middle East that could launch a major assault on Trump’s orders. Ships carrying oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz continue to come under Iranian attack.
Washington is also maintaining pressure. The US is offering a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran’s nuclear program and has established a task force intended to prevent Tehran from using land routes to move advanced weapons and other materials.
Iranian hardliners who believe the country has already prevailed in its war with the US are using Trump’s midterm losses to demand a higher price for ending the conflict. Reform-minded Iranian leaders involved in the talks could face opposition at home if they reach an agreement.
In recent weeks, Iranian military commanders have stepped up warnings, claiming Iran has weapons capable of striking more targets and causing greater damage than before. Even if Trump is willing to make a deal, it remains unclear whether Iran is ready to accept one.
“CNN”’s Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed to the report.
