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Experts have warned that a Russian military satellite may have been testing an attack after approaching a Western commercial satellite to within a few hundred meters in orbit, AnewZ reported. Two other Russian satellites are also said to be moving toward another Western spacecraft.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno wrote on the X platform after the incident in mid-October that Russia’s Kosmos-2612 military satellite had deliberately maneuvered dangerously close to a commercial satellite. He said the behavior was consistent with actions typical of weapons operations in orbit and violated long-established safety limits in low Earth orbit. DiNanno said the United States would continue to protect its vital national security interests in, from and to space.
The X36 satellite involved in the incident is operated by Finland’s ICEYE and provides radar imagery to Western governments and military organizations, including Ukraine.
Three space experts described the incident as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low Earth orbit. Greg Gellner, chief space analyst at U.S. company Integrity ISR, said it “looks like an attack rehearsal.”
“It is the most aggressive posture Russia has demonstrated in terms of threatening another country’s satellites,” Gellner, a former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer, told Reuters.
Russia’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets in response.
Ann Stevens, who heads ICEYE’s U.S. operations, told Reuters that X36 “has been and will continue to be a useful satellite.” She said the company’s network of satellites that collect radar imagery is resilient to interference.
Kosmos-2612 approached X36
The incident has heightened concerns about the security of commercial satellite networks, whose role in military operations is growing. Western officials have said in recent months that Russian activity around ICEYE satellites could signal a growing threat to networks operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX as well.
Gellner, who tracks Russian satellites, said he suspected Kosmos-2612 was testing capabilities related to kinetic attacks. He said such a close approach was not necessary for gathering intelligence or conducting electronic interference.
According to U.S. space intelligence company Slingshot Aerospace, Kosmos-2612 is classified in open sources as a servicing and inspection satellite.
Kosmos-2612 is one of six Russian military satellites launched into orbit in April. Space analysts said four of those satellites were positioned near X36 in May.
ICEYE Chief Executive Rafal Modrzewski told Reuters in September that the company had moved its satellite to a different position and that Russia then made new maneuvers.
According to space analysts, in early October Kosmos-2612 took up a position hundreds of kilometers behind X36. Several days later, it rapidly closed the distance, coming within one kilometer of X36 in mid-October. Some analysts estimated that the distance between the satellites was only a few hundred meters or less.
Gellner said Kosmos-2612 later moved about 400 kilometers away from X36.
Two Russian satellites approach X37
According to Gellner, two other satellites linked to Russia are currently moving toward the orbital path of ICEYE’s X37 spacecraft. U.S. space-tracking company COMSPOC also said the satellites’ positions were becoming increasingly favorable for approaching X37.
Open space-object catalogs list X36 and X37 as registered in the United States.
German Space Command chief Major General Michael Traut told Reuters that, depending on a spacecraft’s technical capabilities, such close approaches could be intended for inspection, observation or interference.
“We therefore have to consider the full spectrum of possible effects, from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.
Traut nevertheless stressed that the ability to carry out such maneuvers did not mean Russia was preparing for or rehearsing an attack. He said publicly available orbital data alone could not establish the intent of spacecraft.
Major powers are increasingly preparing for the possibility that warfare could extend beyond Earth. Washington recently acknowledged deploying a weapon in orbit. The head of U.S. Space Command said earlier this year that Russia had placed a space weapon within range of satellites important to U.S. national security.
Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British Air Force officer, told Reuters that the approach to X36 substantially increased the likelihood of an attack, whether through deliberate action or an accidental interaction.
