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More than 42 million Americans have already voted in the US midterm elections, which will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years. With less than a week until election day, early voting is taking place at a faster rate than in most previous elections, BBC reported.
Data from the University of Florida Election Lab shows that between four and five million ballots have been cast each day. Overall turnout appears on course to surpass 2020, or even 2018, when turnout broke the record for a midterm election set in 1914.
Texas turnout exceeds 2022 figures
Texas has recorded the highest turnout rate above its usual average so far, according to Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database. More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in the state, about 1.75 million more voters than its 2022 total.
The state is a key battleground that could determine which party controls the Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. Texas does not require voters to state their political affiliation or race when registering, but data shows a sharp rise in voting in some counties along the Mexican border, where more than 90% of residents are Hispanic.
“When I look at those counties, what I see is some of them are going to beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone,” McDonald said.
Early voting rises among Democrats and Hispanic and Black voters
Data from states that require voters to register a political affiliation indicates an increase in ballots cast by Democrats, while early voting by Republicans has generally remained similar to 2022. Voting has also risen among people who registered without a party affiliation, although the data does not show which candidates they selected.
Figures released on Thursday show Democrats accounted for 44% of early ballots, Republicans for 31.2% and voters without a party affiliation for 24.7%. These figures cover roughly half of the states, where voters are required to register their affiliation.
North Carolina, Georgia and Florida require voters to provide their race when registering. Data from those states shows an increase in ballots cast by Hispanic and Black voters, while voting among white people is in line with early voting figures from 2022.
“That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition,” McDonald said.
Early voting has expanded in recent years, accelerated by the Covid pandemic as more states introduced options to vote early in person or by mail. In the 2020 election, when voters chose both a president and lawmakers, more than two-thirds of ballots were cast early; half of those early votes were mailed in.
McDonald said voters increasingly prefer to cast early ballots in person and are returning their ballots sooner than in previous elections. He said concerns about postal voting could be a factor, but there is no data showing what is driving the trend. Postal ballots are more likely to be disqualified because of errors, he said, and some voters may be concerned about interference involving the US Postal Service.
Early voting is expected to taper off as states begin ending the option in the days before the election on Tuesday, 3 November.
