OMM Newsroom
Global temperatures could be 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if current climate policies continue, according to a report published on October 21 by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
“AnewZ” reports that even under UNEP’s most optimistic scenario, global warming could temporarily reach 1.7–1.8°C by the middle of the century. That would exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
The report says warming could be limited to about 2.6°C by 2100 if countries fully meet their current climate commitments. If existing policies continue, however, the increase would reach 2.8°C. Both projections are higher than last year’s estimates, partly because of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and updated assessments of historical greenhouse gas emissions.
To achieve the most optimistic outcome, global emissions must fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Current national plans envisage cuts of only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.
The report notes that climate commitments submitted over the past year have had almost no effect on global warming projections.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to keep the rise in global temperatures well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. UNEP said limiting warming to 1.5°C without exceeding the threshold, or only briefly crossing it, is no longer considered an achievable outcome.
Under UNEP’s new scenario with the least overshoot, there is about a 50% chance that temperatures will fall back to 1.5°C or lower by 2100. This outcome will depend heavily on large-scale carbon removal technologies, whose feasibility remains uncertain.
The report was released ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye, where governments are expected to face renewed pressure to strengthen their emissions-reduction commitments.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged countries not to give up efforts to curb global warming. He warned that continued emissions are worsening floods, wildfires and other climate-related disasters.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and the adoption of climate policies in many countries, UNEP stressed the need for urgent and substantial emissions cuts to limit future temperature rises.
