OMM Newsroom
Despite international climate commitments, the world is moving toward dangerous levels of global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions have reached record levels, while meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target is becoming increasingly difficult. According to the latest assessment by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the world is moving ever closer to exceeding that threshold within the next decade.
The warning comes as the gap widens between governments’ climate pledges and the action needed to prevent the worst effects of climate change, AnewZ reports. Despite years of international negotiations to reduce fossil fuel use and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
UNEP estimates that countries’ current climate pledges could lead to a rise in temperatures of 2.3–2.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. If only current government policies are taken into account, warming could reach about 2.8°C. Both scenarios are far above the targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Paris Agreement targets increasingly out of reach
Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
Scientists have long warned that every fraction of a degree matters. Although the impacts of climate change intensify gradually rather than suddenly when a single threshold is crossed, research shows that warming above 1.5°C significantly increases risks to ecosystems, food supplies, water resources, coastal communities and public health.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said repeated updates to climate pledges had not led to the necessary emissions cuts, despite growing scientific evidence and advances in clean energy technologies.
Emissions at record levels as clean energy growth falls short
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high in 2024. According to UNEP, global emissions must fall by more than half by 2035 compared with 2019 levels to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Limiting warming to 2°C also requires deeper cuts than current policies are expected to deliver. These figures show a widening gap between governments’ climate pledges and rising emissions.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), recent years have been the hottest on record, with the global average temperature repeatedly reaching new highs. Ocean temperatures have also set records. Because the oceans absorb much of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, rising temperatures are intensifying marine heatwaves, coral bleaching and more severe weather events.
Scientists stress that warming exceeding 1.5°C in a single year does not mean the Paris Agreement target has officially been breached: the threshold is measured over a longer period. However, the growing frequency of record temperatures is raising concerns about a sustained overshoot.
UNEP’s latest warming projections are slightly lower than some previous estimates. However, experts say this does not necessarily indicate real progress. Some of the change stems from updated scientific methods rather than significant emissions reductions.
Political developments have also affected the projections. The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in early 2026 removed from the forecasts expected emissions reductions from one of the world’s largest economies. Concern is growing ahead of future international negotiations, as several countries have yet to submit stronger climate plans for the coming decade.
Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power, is expanding rapidly in many parts of the world, and investment in the sector is increasing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects renewables to remain the fastest-growing part of the global energy system. Even so, clean energy growth has not been sufficient to replace fossil fuels on the scale needed to meet international climate targets.
Coal, oil and gas remain important to many economies, while energy demand is rising in both developed and developing countries. Financing is also a major obstacle, especially for low-income countries. Developing countries have repeatedly said that inadequate international financial support is slowing efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Scientists increasingly consider a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold likely. The key questions are how far temperatures will rise above it, how long they will remain there and whether emissions cuts will be fast enough to reverse the trend.
UNEP says rapid emissions reductions over the coming decade could limit long-term warming and increase the chances of temperatures falling back toward the Paris Agreement target by the end of the century. Although the window for action is narrowing, experts stress that the difference between warming of 1.6°C, 2°C and 3°C would have major consequences for economies, ecosystems and communities around the world.
The latest UN assessment notes that some climate damage may no longer be avoidable, but the scale of future impacts will depend on how quickly governments, businesses and consumers act over the coming decade.
