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US Vice President JD Vance told Reuters on October 5 that Iran must “significantly” reduce its uranium enrichment capacity to meet US demands and end the seven-month war between the countries.
The administration of Donald Trump is seeking to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear program in slow-moving talks aimed at ending the conflict. Uranium enrichment is a key part of the country’s nuclear infrastructure, but several questions remain unanswered about the program’s current state.
How much uranium did Iran have when the attacks took place?
Israel launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13 last year, and the United States later joined the attacks. The 12-day operation reportedly destroyed or severely damaged the three uranium enrichment facilities then known to be operating in Iran.
Israel and the United States said Iran was nearing the production of a nuclear weapon. The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said there was no credible evidence of a coordinated weapons program.
According to the IAEA, Iran had been enriching uranium to 60% before the attacks. That is just below the approximately 90% level required for a nuclear weapon. The agency estimated that Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% when the first strikes were launched.
The IAEA had access to Iran’s declared nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites, until the US and Israeli attacks. The agency described the enrichment level and the amount of material produced as matters of serious concern. The United States and its European allies say enrichment at that level cannot be justified for civilian purposes. Iran has long maintained that it does not intend to acquire nuclear weapons.
Status of nuclear facilities and uranium stockpiles
Iran has not told the IAEA how much of its enriched uranium survived the attacks or disclosed where the stockpiles are being stored. Tehran has also not allowed agency inspectors to return to the sites that were bombed.
According to the IAEA, the above-ground enrichment facility at the Natanz nuclear complex was destroyed. Two other facilities at Natanz and Fordow were severely damaged and are believed to be out of operation.
One day before Israel’s attack, Iran informed the IAEA that it had opened a new enrichment facility in Isfahan. Diplomats say the site is located in a network of tunnels that was largely spared from US strikes. The IAEA does not know the facility’s current status or whether nuclear material is there.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said in March that the agency believed “a little more than 200 kilograms” of uranium enriched to 60% remained in the tunnel complex in Isfahan. He said some material might also remain at Natanz.
It is not known whether Iran is currently enriching uranium. The time needed to restart the program is also unclear. However, if a significant portion of the stockpile enriched to 60% remains, it could theoretically be brought to weapons-grade levels with relatively little effort using a small number of centrifuges.
The 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers gave the IAEA additional inspection powers, including the ability to monitor the number of centrifuges and their components. US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 led to its collapse. The IAEA subsequently lost track of those machines, and their number and location are now unknown.
US demands and Iran’s position
In his Reuters interview, Vance questioned why Iran enriched uranium to 60% while saying it did not want nuclear weapons. He presented a significant reduction in enrichment capacity as a prerequisite for meeting US demands and ending the war.
“If they want to show that they’re committed to not creating a nuclear weapon, they have to take serious steps regarding their enrichment capacity. We have not seen them willing to do that on a long-term basis,” Vance said.
As it is not known whether Iran is currently enriching uranium, any potential reduction could be measured against its previous capacity. It could involve the uranium enrichment level, production volume or number of enrichment facilities.
An unnamed senior Iranian official described US recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium as a “red line” on which Tehran would not compromise. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization chief Mohammad Eslami and President Masoud Pezeshkian have said they could agree to dilute the highly enriched uranium.
