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Sweden’s center-left opposition holds a narrow lead over the governing right-wing bloc ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary election. The result makes Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson the leading candidate to return as prime minister.
Andersson has been in opposition for four years and could replace Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson, according to a poll conducted by Indikator Opinion among 5,642 voters from Sept. 5 to 10.
Four left-leaning parties together secured 50.8% support, equivalent to about 180 seats in parliament. The governing coalition and the far-right Sweden Democrats, which supports it, could win 47.6% of the vote and 169 seats.
Andersson’s bloc has led in all polls conducted this year. However, its advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. In the last three polls, the opposition has held a lead of about 10 seats.
Tougher migration policy
Ulf Kristersson has led efforts to tighten Sweden’s migration policy, moving the country away from the liberal approach for which it was once known. He has said that if the right-wing bloc wins the election, the Sweden Democrats will enter the government for the first time.
The Sweden Democrats previously apologized for their links to neo-Nazism. The election is taking place as far-right parties strengthen their positions in other European countries as well.
Disagreements within the opposition
A center-left victory would not necessarily mean an easy return to power. Opposition parties disagree over how a government led by the Social Democrats should be formed.
The Centre Party and the Left Party have said they would not join a coalition if the other party were part of the government. The parties also hold differing positions on introducing taxes for billionaires and whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors.
These disagreements could lead to lengthy negotiations and the formation of a minority government involving only some of the opposition parties.
The two blocs largely agree on supporting Ukraine, increasing military spending and helping people cope with rising living costs. Nevertheless, welfare, migration and crime remain the main issues in the election campaign.
Nikolas Aylott, an associate professor at Södertörn University, said no issue had clearly dominated the campaign. He said a center-left victory remained more likely, although its lead had narrowed since the beginning of summer.
Social Democrats remain largest party
According to the poll, the Social Democrats are Sweden’s largest party, with 28.6% support. This is 1.7 percentage points lower than in the 2022 election.
The Sweden Democrats, the largest party in the governing bloc, have 18.3% support. This represents a 2.2 percentage-point decline from 2022. The party supports the governing coalition without formally joining the government and holds no cabinet posts.
Sweden’s parliamentary elections determine the composition of the Riksdag, while the prime minister is appointed through a parliamentary process. The outcome may therefore depend not only on which bloc wins the most seats, but also on the parties’ ability to reach agreements after the vote.
