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Two opinion polls published in Israel on Friday, the final day on which election surveys may legally be released, project 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and 52 for the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot in the 120-member Knesset. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for Tuesday.
Public broadcaster KAN and private Channel 12 published the surveys four days before the vote. Both put the two main camps on the same totals, although their projections for individual parties differed, Anadolu Agency reported.
Channel 12 projected 22 seats for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, 20 for Netanyahu’s Likud and 14 for former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party.
Its poll forecast eight seats each for Jewish Power, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Democrats, led by Yair Golan. The Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance was projected to win nine seats, Shas seven, United Torah Judaism eight and the United Arab List five.
Hadash–Ta’al was projected to receive eight seats, while the Hendel–Zelekha alliance was forecast to win four. Channel 12’s bloc breakdown put Eisenkot’s camp on 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc on 50, Arab parties on 14 and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance on four.
KAN also projected 22 seats for Yashar, 20 for Likud and 14 for Bennett’s party, matching Channel 12’s estimates for the three largest parties. It forecast eight seats each for the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Jewish Power and United Torah Judaism, and seven apiece for Shas and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance.
KAN projected nine seats for the joint Hadash–Ta’al–Balad slate and five for the United Arab List. The Reservists party and the Economic Party were each forecast to win four seats. KAN also put Netanyahu’s bloc on 50 seats and Eisenkot’s camp on 52.
Polls differ on party projections and leadership ratings
The most notable difference between the surveys concerned the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance, which was projected to win seven seats by KAN and nine by Channel 12. KAN forecast nine seats for the joint Arab slate, compared with eight for Hadash–Ta’al in Channel 12’s poll.
In KAN’s survey, Netanyahu’s bloc was down one seat from the previous week’s 51, while Eisenkot’s camp remained unchanged at 52. Likud and Yashar each lost one seat, while Bennett’s party gained two to reach 14.
Asked who was more suitable to be prime minister, respondents in KAN’s poll gave Netanyahu and Bennett 38% each, their first tie since late August. In the previous survey, Netanyahu led Bennett 38% to 34%.
In a separate matchup, Eisenkot received 44% support against Netanyahu’s 38%. Against Bennett, Eisenkot was backed by 35% and Bennett by 22%, while 43% said neither was suitable to lead the government.
Overall, 71% of respondents said they were certain they would vote. The figure was 80% among opposition supporters and 75% among supporters of governing coalition parties. The poll also found that 36% of voters had not definitively decided which party to support, up from 30% in the previous survey.
Voters divided on security and possible government options
On security, 58% rated Israel’s situation as poor, while 37% described it as good. The share viewing the security situation as poor was 73% among opposition supporters and 28% among supporters of the governing coalition.
Asked what they would prefer if Eisenkot’s camp finished ahead of Netanyahu’s but failed to reach 61 seats, 27% backed a unity government and another 27% preferred fresh elections. A further 26% supported a minority government formed by the change camp, with Arab parties abstaining from voting against it.
Among governing coalition supporters, 47% preferred another election. Among opposition supporters, 45% backed a minority government.
The polls indicated that neither main camp would win the 61 seats needed to form a government on its own. Israeli law prohibits the publication of new election poll results from the end of the Friday before Election Day until polling stations close.
The Israel Democracy Institute says the restriction was adopted in 2007 to prevent misleading information and the manipulation of public opinion through polls shortly before elections.
