Realizing the full potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, Middle Corridor) could provide Azerbaijan with additional GDP growth of 1.84%, equivalent to approximately $1.3 billion at current prices.
Operative Information Center-OMM reports this, citing the World Bank’s report titled “Integrating: High-Level Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Route.”
Expanding the corridor’s operations would help increase total employment in Azerbaijan by 1.5%.
The main drivers of economic growth for Azerbaijan would be higher revenues from transit freight, increased business activity in the port and railway sectors, and deeper trade ties with Central Asian and European countries.
World Bank analysts stressed that achieving these targets would require Azerbaijan to continue modernizing its port and railway infrastructure, while introducing digital solutions to accelerate customs procedures.
According to the report, developing the TITR could increase the combined GDP of participating countries by 3.3% over the long term, equivalent to $58 billion at current prices. Total employment in the corridor countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan — would rise by 2.9%.
The largest absolute GDP gains are forecast for the region’s major economies: Türkiye, with an increase of $47.1 billion, or 4.11%, and Kazakhstan, with an increase of $6.14 billion, or 2.22%. Azerbaijan’s GDP is expected to grow by $326 million, or 0.43%. In relative terms, the greatest benefits would go to small landlocked economies, particularly Kyrgyzstan, where GDP is projected to rise by 4.83%, and Georgia, with growth of 3.61%.
The World Bank said realizing the corridor’s potential would require not only investment in infrastructure, but also comprehensive institutional changes encompassing digitalization and reforms at state-owned transport companies.
“Although Armenia is not currently among the countries hosting the TITR, it is expected to establish direct physical connections with the route in the 2030s. Given that the report’s analytical horizon covers 2023-2040, Armenia was included in the calculations,” the World Bank said.
