OMM Redaksiyası
The European Union could face a natural gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres this winter, equivalent to about 7% of its demand, amid low storage levels and disruptions to global energy supplies, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The US-based institute’s report, shared with Politico on Friday, said EU gas reserves had fallen to just above 70% of capacity — their lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011.
A deficit of that scale could affect supplies equivalent to the consumption of 10 million to 12 million European households, raising concerns about higher electricity bills and possible energy-saving measures.
High prices have encouraged traders to sell gas during the summer rather than replenish storage facilities ahead of winter, leaving the bloc with a smaller buffer against supply disruptions.
The findings are also reflected in the 2026-2027 winter supply outlook published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). It warned that storage levels could fall as low as 11% in a cold-winter scenario if liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are limited or remain at optimal levels.
To restore reserves to 30% by the end of winter, the EU could have to curtail gas consumption equivalent to 7% of demand or withhold supplies from consumers, according to ENTSOG.
The EU’s planned ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, due to take effect in January, is expected to reduce gas imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres, the IEEFA report said.
Winter gas demand has risen over the past two years, while imports have remained largely flat, increasing the bloc’s reliance on stored supplies. The EU could seek additional LNG imports, particularly from the United States, to offset potential supply losses.
Replacing the missing volumes at current prices would cost an additional €3 billion, 12% more than the same volumes cost last year, according to IEEFA.
