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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, raising its forecasts for global oil prices amid continuing military and political tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to supply chains.
Operative Information Center-OMM reports that the outlook puts the average price of a barrel of Brent crude at $114 in September. The agency estimates that Brent spot prices will average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $14 higher than its forecast last month.
The EIA forecasts an annual average Brent price of $96.32 per barrel in 2026, and a price of $88.21 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The agency also raised its 2027 price forecasts to $83.74 for Brent and $79.74 for WTI.
Analysts say global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter because of production restrictions in the Middle East. The volume of oil production lost due to disruptions in the region declined from 10.9 million barrels per day in May to 4.8 million in September.
The EIA expects prices to stabilize from 2027 as Middle Eastern production recovers and alternative transportation routes come into operation. Global oil production is forecast to average 101.09 million barrels per day this year and rise by 8.5 million barrels per day to 109.55 million in 2027. U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase to 14.3 million barrels per day next year.
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook provides forecasts and analysis of energy markets, including oil supply, demand and prices. Its estimates are updated regularly as market conditions and geopolitical developments change.
