OMM Redaksiyası
An El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean could become one of the strongest on record, increasing rainfall in parts of Central Asia and significantly raising the risk of flooding.
According to a forecast by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the phenomenon could peak in early 2027. Its effects could include extreme heat, drought, intense rainfall, floods and agricultural losses in various parts of the world.
When does El Niño occur?
El Niño occurs, on average, every two to seven years. The phenomenon is characterized by weaker trade winds and warmer waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, rainfall and temperature patterns can change across different regions of the world.
In September, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were 3.05 degrees Celsius above average. This was the highest deviation recorded for an El Niño event. The threshold for the onset of the phenomenon is a temperature just 0.5 degrees above average.
The WMO does not officially use the term “super El Niño.” However, it forecasts that the current event could develop into a “very strong” El Niño, with a significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns.
Flood threat in Central Asia
“Reuters” reports that rainfall usually increases in parts of the region during El Niño events. This trend could raise the likelihood of dangerous floods.
The effects of El Niño may not be limited to rainfall patterns. Combined with global warming, the phenomenon could make 2027 the hottest year in the history of meteorological observations.
Possible consequences of warming
Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab estimate that additional heat between June 2026 and February 2027 could cause approximately 451,000 excess deaths worldwide. Early warning systems and measures to protect people working outdoors could significantly reduce this figure.
El Niño is not a direct result of climate change. However, rising global average temperatures could intensify its effects, worsening heat, drought, intense rainfall, wildfires and crop losses.
The developing phenomenon could also place additional pressure on food security. According to a forecast by the United Nations World Food Programme, about 50 million people could face the risk of acute hunger by the end of 2027 amid the development of El Niño.
