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Russian crude oil production rose in October, the same month US President Donald Trump announced a diesel supply agreement with Moscow, as global oil supply outpaced demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday, according to Anadolu Agency.
Russia’s output increased by 210,000 barrels per day to 8.73 million barrels per day, the IEA said in its November Oil Market Report.
Trump announced the agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 9, saying additional Russian diesel supplies would help lower fuel prices in the United States and global markets. He said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons afterward.
The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135 on the same day, authorizing transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027. The IEA did not directly link the rise in Russian crude production to the agreement.
Global oil supply exceeds demand
Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day to 105.4 million barrels per day in October as exports from the Gulf recovered. Supply exceeded demand for the first time since the Iran war began.
The IEA raised its fourth-quarter supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels per day. Observed oil inventories increased by 52 million barrels in October, their first rise since June. The buildup was driven by oil held at sea, while onshore stocks continued to decline.
Diesel supplies remained tight amid attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Middle East.
IEA forecasts larger surplus in 2027
The agency expects global oil supply to rise by 6.6 million barrels per day to 108.1 million barrels per day in 2027, outpacing projected demand growth of 2 million barrels per day.
The IEA forecasts a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, followed by larger inventory buildups next year, although attacks on shipping pose risks to the recovery.
