OMM Redaksiyası
Ethiopia is facing its most serious security crisis in years as fighting has returned to the northern Tigray region, reviving fears of another civil war and a wider regional conflict.
The clashes that intensified on Sept. 23 are the most severe since the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people before a peace agreement was signed in South Africa. The latest violence has spread beyond Tigray, and relations between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea have deteriorated sharply.
The International Crisis Group warned that northern Ethiopia was facing a “dangerous descent back into war” and called on African leaders and key outside powers, including the United States, to press the parties to de-escalate and resume negotiations. The European Union also called on Monday for immediate de-escalation on all fronts.
How the fighting resumed
The Pretoria agreement, signed on Nov. 2, 2022, formally ended the two-year war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). It provided for a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament and a political process, but left disputes over territory, displaced people and Tigray’s political and security arrangements unresolved.
The latest major escalation began on Sept. 23, when Tigrayan forces seized federally administered airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire, according to the African Union. Fighting also opened fronts in and around the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar.
The International Crisis Group said the attacks appeared to be the first coordinated military operation by a newly formed opposition alliance against federal forces and their allies. The TPLF-led regional administration said its forces were responding to federal air and artillery attacks. The African Union said the airport seizures were inconsistent with the Pretoria agreement and urged the parties to return to direct talks.
Federal forces and allied fighters regained control of Mekelle over the weekend after Tigrayan forces withdrew. The TPLF said its regional administration would be “temporarily moved out of Mekelle and operate from somewhere else.” Fighting nevertheless continued, with airstrikes and artillery fire reported in northern Tigray on Oct. 5.
Opposition groups and regional tensions
Federal troops and allied groups, including the government-backed Tigray Peace Forces, are fighting the TPLF and other armed opposition movements. Government officials have blamed the TPLF for the outbreak of the conflict.
The TPLF is part of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a seven-group coalition announced in September that has pledged to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish a transitional administration. The alliance also includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement, according to its founding statement read on Tigrai TV.
The coalition brings together groups with different political goals and territorial claims; its formation does not mean they operate as a unified army. The International Crisis Group said Tigrayan forces and Amhara Fano fighters jointly attacked federal troops in Amhara near southern Tigray, while an Afar opposition group fought alongside the TPLF on the Tigray-Afar border.
The cooperation marks a shift from the 2020-2022 war, when Amhara forces fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF. Tigrayan fighters are now also on opposing sides, with the Tigray Peace Forces supporting the federal government.
The crisis has also taken on a regional dimension. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting forces opposed to Abiy’s government; all three countries have denied the allegations. Egypt and Sudan are also in dispute with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Cairo says the project could affect its annual water allocation of 55.5 billion cubic metres.
Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war, but relations have since sharply deteriorated. One source of tension is Ethiopia’s demand for access to the Red Sea. After being sworn in for another five-year term this week, Abiy said Ethiopia’s modernisation could not be achieved without sea access.
Last week, Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata. Eritrea later announced it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
Humanitarian concerns
The renewed fighting threatens civilians still recovering from the previous war, including people who remain displaced. The UN has warned that humanitarian operations have been disrupted by road closures, communications outages and the seizure of aid vehicles.
The UN reported that a drone strike in northwestern Tigray hit a truck carrying food assistance for displaced people. Internet and telephone services were reportedly disrupted in Mekelle and parts of Amhara, while roads were blocked in areas of Afar. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire after the TPLF seized the airports.
UN human rights chief Volker Türk said in late September that he was “deeply alarmed” by the escalation between Ethiopian government forces and the TPLF and its allies. He warned that communications outages could prevent civilians from finding safe routes out of affected areas and make it harder for aid workers to reach people in need.
Türk also condemned what his office described as a campaign of forced mass recruitment by the TPLF, including the recruitment of children and former fighters demobilised in late 2025. His office said people who resisted recruitment, as well as their relatives, had faced killings, torture, arbitrary detention, forced displacement and other reprisals.
