OMM Newsroom
Gulf states have spent weeks concerned that Iran could resume attacks against them to force an end to the nine-month regional conflict on Tehran’s terms. Those concerns intensified after two attempted drone attacks on Bahrain in recent days. Bahrain hosts major US military facilities and is an American ally. Iran has also warned Gulf states not to “reopen old wounds,” according to CNN.
Iran appears to be escalating pressure as it seeks to prevent more Gulf oil and gas from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while its economy faces a US blockade and the cumulative impact of international sanctions.
Bahrain’s Defense Force said on Sunday that it had “intercepted and destroyed” several Iranian drones, following a similar interception on Friday. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had earlier claimed an attack on a US helicopter base in Bahrain. CNN said it had contacted US Central Command for comment.
The attacks have coincided with more forceful statements from Tehran about its neighbors, the consequences of renewed US or Israeli strikes, and negotiations with Washington. Iran was angered by suggestions last week from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council that it should compensate neighboring countries for attacks on their territory. Iran is also seeking compensation in any agreement with the US.
“How can countries that actively participated in military aggression against a neighbouring country and made their airspace, territory and waters available to those who attacked Iranian territory speak of seeking compensation from Iran?” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said at a news conference on Sunday. “What about Iran’s inherent and legal right to defend itself?”
Baghaei said Gulf states “must be careful not to reopen old wounds,” referring to their support for Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein during the 1980s war between Iraq and Iran.
Iran wants the Gulf states “to pay the price for a war they did not choose, then give up their right to accountability and compensation. This is an equation that cannot be accepted,” said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center think tank on Sunday.
Gulf shipping and oil exports
Signs of concern over a possible return to hostilities included last week’s announcement by the Gulf Cooperation Council of an advanced headquarters in Kuwait for its unified military command, along with the deployment of forces there. The council’s secretary general, Jasem Mohamed Al Budaiwi, said the move demonstrated “a firm Gulf commitment to safeguarding the security and sovereignty of the GCC states” after what he described as “heinous Iranian attacks.”
Iran has also increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf. It has made near-daily claims, few of them substantiated, that tankers struck mines while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
For Tehran, rising Gulf energy exports and falling oil prices have weakened its leverage in negotiations. The International Energy Agency said Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October, about 26% below prewar levels. Iran, meanwhile, has been unable to export a meaningful volume of its own crude for more than two months.
Iran is demanding an end to the US blockade, the gradual removal of international sanctions and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets before resuming negotiations with the US.
Trump appears willing to let economic pressure on Iran continue, expecting Tehran to soften its terms and recognizing that Gulf states want to avoid another conflict, according to CNN. “At the request of the nations that I am looking to protect, we are doing it a little bit longer way, a bit more civilly,” Trump said on Thursday.
He also canceled Vice President JD Vance’s efforts to revive talks with Iran, saying: “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.”
Iran says it will not discuss nuclear concessions
Iran’s economic difficulties appear to be worsening, although senior officials say the country can withstand the pressure and access foreign currency to support the rial, which has fallen sharply since the conflict began. Long queues at petrol stations in many parts of Iran are a persistent sign of hardship.
Vice President Esmail Saghab Esfahani acknowledged a supply problem last week, saying Iranians could no longer rely on petrol stations to meet their needs. Residents of the port city of Bandar Abbas blocked traffic on Thursday in protest over fuel shortages. Parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf suggested officials stop discussing the sensitive issue.
There have been no public indications that the Iranian government is ready to compromise. Asked on Sunday whether Iran would accept a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment or a reduction in enrichment levels in negotiations with Washington, Baghaei said: “No. We are not at that stage at all. During this period, we are not discussing any details related to the nuclear issue, nor have we held any such discussions.”
Ghalibaf said on Sunday that it made no difference whether Washington wanted negotiations or war. “If the Americans make another mistake this time, the capabilities and will of Iran’s armed forces will determine the geography of the battlefield,” he said.
Iran has repeatedly warned that a new phase of the conflict could expand its targets to infrastructure across the region, including subsea cables. Its Houthi allies in Yemen fire ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia almost daily and appear to have renewed pressure on Saudi-backed government forces in southern Yemen.
The result is an unstable standoff across the region. Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on “X” that the United States may believe it can maintain the blockade for an extended period, but Iran views it as a direct threat to its economy, sovereignty and national security.
The US “cannot assume that time alone will force Tehran to surrender,” Citrinowicz wrote. “Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to absorb enormous economic costs rather than abandon what its leadership considers fundamental national interests.”
