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US troops are scheduled to fully withdraw from Iraq at midnight on Sept. 30. This will end the military presence that began after the 2003 invasion and resulted in the deaths of approximately 4,500 US service members.
Several hundred US troops are reportedly still in Iraq, mainly in the Kurdistan Region. They are also expected to leave by the established deadline. The United States previously maintained about 2,500 troops in Iraq, but most have already withdrawn.
The withdrawal, agreed under former President Joe Biden and completed under President Donald Trump, closes a significant chapter in Iraq’s modern history. The main question now is not whether US forces will leave, but how Iraq will develop afterward.
Iran and its allies could increase their influence
One of the most discussed possibilities is a shift in the regional balance of power in Iran’s favor. Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli told Reuters that the US-led coalition had long been a factor limiting Tehran’s influence.
After the US withdrawal, Iran-linked armed groups could seek to increase their role in security and political decision-making. Abu Mujtaba al-Yasiri, a representative of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” group, called the withdrawal a “historic victory.” Iran’s parliament also welcomed the move.
According to an assessment by the RAND Corporation, a full withdrawal could weaken efforts to balance Iran’s influence and place most of the mission to combat the “Islamic State” on Iraq and Iran. The New Lines Institute has suggested that Iran-linked militias could fill gaps created by the departure of coalition forces.
Islamic State could become active again
Another concern is whether the “Islamic State” group could take advantage of the departure of US forces. Although the group’s territorial “caliphate” was dismantled years ago, its networks have reportedly not been completely eliminated.
According to Reuters, the “Islamic State” claimed to have carried out 61 attacks in Iraq in 2024 and reactivated its clandestine cells. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said reports about the coalition’s withdrawal had boosted the group’s morale and that an increase in the activity of underground cells had been observed.
RAND rated the impact of a full withdrawal on the fight against the “Islamic State” as “very high.” The New Lines Institute warned that attacks could increase significantly in Iraq and Syria. However, some analysts believe the “Islamic State” has lost the strength it previously held in Iraq.
Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region could face a new test
The withdrawal of US forces could also test relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Possible scenarios include a complete withdrawal, the retention of a limited US military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the replacement of military cooperation with economic ties.
Some coalition partners, including Germany, have reportedly begun handing over several facilities. A new committee has also been established to coordinate intelligence sharing and defense cooperation.
How effectively these mechanisms operate will be important for maintaining security coordination after the US forces leave.
Economic and geopolitical consequences
The potential effects of the withdrawal are not limited to security. Analysts say it could also affect Iraq’s economic situation and its relations with international partners.
The Washington Institute noted that disputes over sanctions and financial agreements could intensify, including pressure on Iraq’s access to financial systems based on the US dollar. The New Arab highlighted concerns about possible restrictions on trade and energy exports.
According to an assessment by the NESA Center, a premature or poorly managed withdrawal could signal that the United States is becoming less interested in maintaining security commitments abroad. This could work to the advantage of China and Russia.
Iraq could manage security issues independently
Another scenario is that Iraq successfully manages the transition. Analysts at the Defense Priorities organization believe some concerns about the withdrawal are exaggerated. In their view, Iraqi security forces are better prepared than they were a decade ago, while the “Islamic State” no longer has its former territorial strength.
The organization also said the departure of US troops could remove one of the main sources of tension between Washington and Iran-backed groups and create diplomatic opportunities.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also said that moving away from foreign military involvement would remove the justification for armed “resistance” against foreign forces. However, Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zubai stressed that the country was not fully ready to manage its security situation independently and that a dangerous gap could emerge in the short term.
What will analysts monitor?
It may become clearer over the next six to 12 months which scenario is unfolding. Experts will focus mainly on three issues:
- Whether attacks by the “Islamic State” increase after the US forces withdraw;
- How much influence Iran-linked groups gain in Iraq’s political and security structures;
- Whether the United States maintains a limited military presence or broader cooperation through the Kurdistan Region and other mechanisms.
The departure of the last US service member from Iraq will mark the end of one phase. However, the country’s future will largely be determined by how Iraqi institutions, regional powers and international partners respond to the transition.
