OMM Redaksiyası
Ten years ago, a far-right party winning an election in one of Western Europe’s major countries would have been regarded as a political shock. Today, such results are increasingly becoming a routine feature of Europe’s political landscape.
Recent elections clearly illustrate this change. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came first in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, winning 43.8% of the vote. In France, Marine Le Pen has secured the right to take part in the country’s next presidential election. In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) continues to lead opinion polls.
Support for far-right parties grows
According to research by the PopuList project, more than 23% of European voters support far-right parties in national elections. The figure was about 10% a decade ago and 5% in 1995.
The study, involving more than 150 political scientists from 31 countries, shows a sharp long-term increase in support for these forces. Researchers, however, note that changes in vote shares are estimates and that academic debate continues over applying the term “far right” to different political movements.
The trend is not developing in the same direction in every country. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom lost about one-third of its seats in parliament. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party suffered a serious defeat in April.
Analyses of the 2024 European Parliament elections showed an increase in the representation of far-right groups, but did not describe it as a dramatic breakthrough. Estimates suggested that these groups could have won about 170 seats in the 720-member parliament, compared with 165 seats in 2019.
Changing political agenda
Analysts say the main change is not limited to the number of votes won in elections. Proposals once considered marginal, including the large-scale deportation of asylum seekers, are increasingly entering mainstream political debates.
The Council on Foreign Relations recalled the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Austria after the FPÖ joined the government in 2000, saying that a similar reaction today appeared unlikely.
This shows that the influence of far-right parties cannot be measured solely by the number of seats they hold in parliament. Some of their policy proposals are entering broader political discussions and influencing governments’ agendas.
The situation in Germany, France and Austria
Germany is one of the clearest examples of political change in Europe. The AfD’s victory in Thuringia in 2024 was described as the first state-level election victory by a far-right party in Germany since World War II.
The party later won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. That result was more than twice the 17.2% secured by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Voter turnout also rose by more than 17 percentage points, reaching about 78%.
The AfD won 39 seats in the 83-member legislature and does not have enough seats to form a government alone. The mainstream parties have so far refused to cooperate with the party.
In France, the National Rally (RN) party’s representation in parliament has increased significantly in recent years. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, the number of the party’s deputies in the National Assembly rose from eight in 2017 to 89 in 2022 and 125 in 2024.
Attention is now focused on the presidential election scheduled for 2027. In July, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld Le Pen’s conviction for embezzlement but reduced the period that would prevent her from standing in elections. Recent polls show Le Pen ahead of several potential rivals in hypothetical runoff scenarios. However, polls reflect voter intentions at a particular time and do not predict the result.
In Austria, the FPÖ became the largest party after the 2024 election, but talks on forming a government with centrist parties failed. Discussions between the FPÖ and the Austrian People’s Party were halted on Feb. 12, 2025. After 151 days without a government, the People’s Party, the Social Democrats and the liberal NEOS formed a three-party coalition.
This process did not significantly weaken the FPÖ’s voter support. Polls in September 2026 put the party’s support at about 38%, with the FPÖ ahead of both the People’s Party and the Social Democrats.
Different experiences in Italy and Romania
In Italy, a party classified as part of Europe’s far right already plays a central role in government. The constitutional reforms proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni envisage the direct election of the prime minister and the allocation of a parliamentary majority to the winning coalition.
The opposition says this model could lead to excessive concentration of power. Meloni presents the reforms as a solution to long-term political instability.
In Romania, the process has taken a more complicated course. In November 2024, Calin Georgescu, a figure with no political experience, unexpectedly won the first round of the presidential election. The Constitutional Court later annulled the vote, citing concerns over campaign financing and possible Russian interference. Moscow rejected the allegations.
Georgescu was detained and placed under investigation in September 2026 in a case involving aggravated fraud and the creation of an organized criminal group. He also faces separate legal proceedings over actions against the constitutional order and the promotion of fascist ideology.
His ally, AUR leader George Simion, won 40.96% in the first round of the repeat presidential election but lost the runoff to Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who secured 53.6%. Simion received 46.4% of the vote. Nevertheless, populist and sovereigntist groups retained about one-third of the seats in Romania’s parliament.
The future of the far right
Analysts believe that the participation of these parties in government does not always reduce their electoral support. Differences over defense, trade and foreign policy have also not yet translated into a clear electoral penalty.
Inflation, distrust in state institutions, concerns over migration and international economic competition are cited as long-term factors contributing to rising support for the far right.
At the same time, there are signs that support for far-right parties in Europe has generally stabilized since late 2025. This may indicate that their growth has reached a certain limit.
The growing representation of nationalist parties in parliaments could also affect Europe’s climate policy. The AfD, for example, has proposed that Germany withdraw from international climate agreements.
Whether these positions become actual policy will depend on future elections, the distribution of seats in parliament and coalition negotiations. For now, the most noticeable change is that results once considered political shocks are increasingly becoming routine events in Europe’s electoral landscape.
