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Canadian media project that the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ) will win a minority government in Monday’s provincial election, making party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Quebec’s next premier.
The projected victory would put the PQ back in power for the first time since 2014 and could set up disputes with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal government over immigration and the monarchy.
The PQ has also promised a referendum on Quebec’s independence. The predominantly French-speaking province held votes on separation in 1980 and 1995; polls suggest about 30% of Quebecers currently support independence.
Plamondon has said a referendum would take place after US President Donald Trump leaves office. With Trump expected to leave in about two years, a vote could be held in 2029 or 2030 if the PQ leader follows through on the pledge.
Carney could face challenges to Canadian unity in Quebec and Alberta, depending on the outcome of a separation vote expected in Alberta later this month.
Beyond the independence question, Plamondon has said he would challenge Ottawa when it encroaches on provincial matters. During the campaign, he vowed to oppose any increases in immigration levels imposed by the Carney government.
He has also pledged to “abolish the monarchy in Quebec” and redirect spending on its institutions to social services. In late September, he told reporters: “We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes.”
Plamondon has proposed cutting funding for the office of Quebec’s lieutenant-governor, who represents King Charles III in the province, and using the money to address homelessness.
The proposal could face significant legal challenges because of the monarchy’s central place in Canada’s constitution. The lieutenant-governor also grants royal assent to provincial legislation, raising questions about the status of future laws if the office’s role is contested.
Asked about the legal obstacles, Plamondon has said he is prepared for a court battle with the federal government. In 2022, he was among Quebec lawmakers who declined to swear allegiance to the King, paving the way for a provincial law that made the oath optional.
The PQ’s projected success has come amid voter fatigue with the Coalition Avenir Québec government. The party made the protection of Quebec’s identity and language a central part of its eight years in office, but its longtime leader François Legault lost significant support.
Attempts to revive the party by replacing Legault with outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette did not succeed. Fréchette conceded her re-election race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time and said she would work with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition.
“Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had,” she said. “I have Quebec tattooed on my heart.”
The Quebec Liberal Party won the second-highest number of seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party also gained seats.
Carney, who leads Canada’s federal Liberal Party, remains popular in Quebec, although his support had recently fallen as Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada in August after trade talks broke down.
Quebec is among the provinces most affected by the latest US tariffs. Oxford Economics has projected that they could cost the province C$2 billion.
