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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call to “Vote like Canada depends on it” appears to have resonated with voters in Alberta: preliminary results show more than two-thirds want the province to remain part of Canada, BBC World reported.
The vote gives Carney political backing as Ottawa seeks to weather a punishing trade war with the United States by diversifying trade, strengthening the economy and building alliances elsewhere. Alberta holds most of Canada’s proven oil reserves and has abundant gas and mineral wealth.
Carney, a former central banker who grew up in Alberta, has presented himself as a builder of Canada at home and abroad. After the scale of the victory became clear on Monday, he said Albertans had “chosen unity, to build together, and to take care of each other”.
“Don’t mess with Canada,” said Thomas Lukaszuk, a former lawmaker whose “Forever Canadian” campaign played a key role in the referendum. Addressing supporters in Edmonton as the “yes” count for Canada rose, he said the result would “send a very strong message to the rest of the world”.
The remarks were directed in particular at US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st US state. On the day of Alberta’s vote, Trump told a rally in Kansas that he would let Canadians keep ice hockey and their national anthem, “O Canada”, before adding: “We’re only kidding.”
Carney has warned that “there are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they own us”, without naming them. Some prominent separatist figures, however, have acknowledged travelling to Washington three times last year to meet US State Department officials and discuss what an independent Alberta could offer, including a possible oil pipeline through the United States to the Pacific.
Alberta’s oil and Canada’s trade plans
Foreign governments may pay limited attention to the vote, despite its historic significance in Canada. Janice Stein, founding director of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, said most foreign governments, apart from the United States, have little interest in Canadian domestic politics unless Alberta votes to separate.
Foreign investors are focused on the time needed to complete major infrastructure projects, returns on investment and predictable regulations, Stein said. Carney has put forward a list of costly megaprojects that could take years to build and are intended to boost economic growth.
The plans include a proposed pipeline to the Pacific coast that could open Asian markets to Alberta’s oil. It also addresses a long-standing Alberta grievance that federal policies, including environmental regulations, have held back the province’s economy.
At a rally in Alberta last week, Carney’s comment that the pipeline “will reduce our dependence on the United States” drew the loudest and longest applause of the night. After Monday’s vote, he spoke of “unleashing our full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta as its core”. The political and economic pressures appear to be taking precedence over his environmental credentials as a former UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance.
Referendum questions and Carney’s political position
“Build Canada Strong” has been Carney’s mantra since he entered politics at the start of last year as a newcomer. The final results on the referendum’s nine other questions could have far-reaching implications. They covered greater provincial powers, the costs of immigration and possible constitutional changes.
The results are expected to prompt debate and deal-making among Canada’s nine other provinces and three territories, which also have their own grievances.
Carney has faced questions from journalists about whether he spends too much time travelling abroad to build political alliances and trade partnerships. His efforts include an unprecedented, but still uncertain, offer of associate membership of the European Union.
“I can do both and I need to do both,” he said recently, before listing more than 16 bills passed by Parliament in its last session. They covered major tax changes, public safety and fuel prices.
Carney is currently polling strongly across Canada, including in Alberta, where his Liberal Party does not traditionally enjoy strong support. His firm response to Trump’s threats, including retaliatory tariffs, has also raised his profile internationally.
“The Economist” featured Carney on its cover during a pivotal week for Canada, depicting him with a red maple leaf between his teeth. One headline read: “Mark Carney shows middle powers how to handle a dangerous world.” The accompanying article also examined Canada’s vulnerabilities, including Alberta’s vote.
Political scientist and author David Moscrop said the broader message of the vote might be that Canadian unity was in good shape. He asked what would happen when Trump was gone and Canadians no longer had a single prominent target around which to rally.
Carney’s recent decision to walk away from trade talks with the United States has prompted a further surge of Canadian pride. But if the trade war continues with a country that traditionally takes 70% of Canada’s exports, Canadians could feel greater pressure in their daily lives.
For now, the result is being celebrated as “a win for Team Canada and its resilience”, CBC journalist Janyce McGregor said during the public broadcaster’s coverage.
