OMM Newsroom
Democrats lead Republicans in national polling ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, with surveys indicating gains for Democrats in several closely contested Senate races. Voters have also expressed dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, according to Anadolu Agency.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. The results will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress for the remaining two years of Trump’s second term.
An average of surveys compiled by “RealClearPolling” through Oct. 30 puts Democrats at 52% on the generic congressional ballot, against 43.1% for Republicans, an 8.9-percentage-point lead. A “NBC News” poll conducted Oct. 28-30 showed Democrats ahead 52% to 45%, while an “Emerson College” survey from Oct. 24-26 put their lead at 10 points.
The generic ballot measures nationwide preferences for congressional candidates, not support in individual districts, so a national lead does not necessarily translate into a corresponding number of House seats.
Democrats lead in national House polling
Republicans currently control the House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority. The nonpartisan “Cook Political Report,” in ratings updated Friday, placed 222 districts in categories favoring Democrats and 195 favoring Republicans, with 18 toss-ups. Republicans currently hold 14 of those toss-up districts and Democrats hold four.
On Oct. 30, “Cook Political Report” shifted another 12 House races toward Democrats, including Republican-held districts in Colorado and Pennsylvania, reflecting a change in its assessment of the electoral landscape.
Among closely watched contests are California’s 22nd District, where Republican Representative David Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas; New York’s 17th District, where Republican Representative Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley; and Texas’ 15th District, where Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido.
Republicans are also contesting Democratic-held seats in Florida, North Carolina and Texas, where redistricting has altered the electoral landscape. District-level polling remains uneven, and national figures provide only a broad indication of the conditions in individual races.
Democrats gain ground in Senate battlegrounds
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 47 and are joined in their caucus by two independents. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance can cast tie-breaking votes.
The latest “New York Times”/Siena University polls, conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, show Democratic candidates leading in six of seven key Senate battlegrounds and effectively tied with Republicans in the seventh. Five of the Democratic leads are in Republican-held states, including Texas and Kansas, which have not elected Democratic senators since 1988 and 1932, respectively.
In Michigan, the only Democratic-held seat among the seven surveyed, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%, an 11-point advantage. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson has 51% support, compared with 45% for Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49% to 44% in Ohio. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Roger Marshall by the same margin.
The races are tighter in Alaska and Iowa. Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 48% to 46% in Alaska, while Iowa Democrat Josh Turek is effectively tied with Republican Ashley Hinson, 48% to 47%.
The surveys show Democrats improving their position since September in six of the seven states. In Maine, the race shifted from a three-point Republican lead to a six-point Democratic advantage, while the Democratic lead in Michigan widened from five points to 11. Kansas moved from a tie to a five-point Democratic lead. Alaska was the only state where Democrats lost ground, as their advantage narrowed from seven points to approximately one point.
The surveys did not include North Carolina, another Republican-held seat where recent polling has consistently shown Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley. Findings vary among pollsters, and several battleground contests remain close in broader polling averages.
Economy and cost of living top voter concerns
The “New York Times”/Siena surveys found that 38% of likely voters across the seven battleground states approved of Trump’s job performance. Democratic candidates led among independent voters in every state surveyed, and respondents expressed greater trust in Democrats on the cost of living, foreign wars and protecting the interests of ordinary people. Across the seven states, Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on handling the cost of living.
A national survey by “Associated Press-NORC,” conducted Oct. 8-12, found that 36% of voters approved of Trump’s job performance and 64% disapproved.
The economy and cost of living were the leading election concerns, cited as important voting issues by 85% and 84% of respondents, respectively. Health care followed at 69%, while 64% considered the war with Iran an important issue.
The survey also found that 47% of voters wanted Democrats to control the House, compared with 38% who preferred Republicans. For the Senate, the figures were 46% and 38%, respectively.
Turnout and polling accuracy remain uncertain
Despite Democrats’ polling advantage, uncertainty over turnout and survey accuracy could affect the results. The “New York Times”/Siena polls surveyed between 610 and 1,215 likely voters in each state, with margins of sampling error ranging from 3.3 to 4.8 percentage points.
The surveys also found that voters who made their decisions during the preceding month favored Republicans by nine points, suggesting late shifts in support could matter. Polling errors can result from inaccurate turnout assumptions, difficulties reaching certain demographic groups and systematic biases shared by multiple surveys.
Democratic support among some key demographic groups had strengthened since September, the surveys found, although polling has historically struggled to accurately measure white working-class voters. With several Senate contests separated by only a few percentage points, small differences between polling estimates and actual voting patterns could change the balance of power in Congress.
