Poll gives Flavio Bolsonaro 53% and Lula 47% ahead of Brazil runoff

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by six percentage points ahead of Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff, according to a PoderData/Aya poll released Thursday.

The survey found 53% support for Bolsonaro and 47% for Lula. It was conducted from Oct. 5 to 7, after the Oct. 4 first round.

Researchers interviewed 3,000 people by mobile and landline calls in 705 municipalities across Brazil’s 27 states. The poll has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.

Compared with PoderData/Aya’s survey before the first round, Bolsonaro’s support rose by three points, while Lula’s fell by three. The earlier poll had the candidates tied at 50%.

In the first round, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Neither reached the more-than-50% threshold required to win the presidency outright, sending them to a runoff.

Lula is seeking another term and will face Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Both campaigns are seeking support from voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round.

Other major polling organisations are also expected to publish surveys ahead of the Oct. 25 vote.