OMM Redaksiyası
A classified CIA assessment has warned that deepening political, economic and social divisions could put Israel at risk of civil war or state collapse, according to a report published Monday by Drop Site News.
The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell, a unit tasked with challenging prevailing intelligence assumptions. Drop Site News cited two US sources familiar with the document’s contents.
The CIA did not respond to the outlet’s request for comment.
The assessment reportedly describes a volatile mix of pressures ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, including economic strain, increased military spending, anger over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and escalating violence by Israeli occupiers in the occupied West Bank.
It also identifies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in power as a source of further political and constitutional tension.
Years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have deepened existing divisions, the report says. Soldiers returning from prolonged combat include many suffering serious psychological trauma.
The dispute over military conscription has become one of Israel’s sharpest internal fault lines, with resentment growing over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men after repeated reserve mobilizations.
The assessment also cites Israel’s increasing international isolation, including eroding support in the United States, as a factor that could contribute to further internal instability.
