Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are deadlocked in the latest opinion polls, with the first round of the presidential election less than two weeks away, according to Al Jazeera and Reuters.

Two polls released on Monday showed the candidates within the margin of error in potential runoffs. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes on October 4, the top two contenders will face each other in a runoff on October 25.

Polls show a close race

A Quaest poll placed Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a simulated second round. A separate BTG Pactual/Nexus survey gave Lula 46% support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro.

The latest Quaest figures indicate a narrowing race compared with the institute’s August 5 poll, which showed Lula leading Bolsonaro by five percentage points, 44% to 39%.

Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term as president. He faces a challenge from Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump.

The elder Bolsonaro was declared ineligible for office after Brazil’s top electoral court found that he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election.

US pressure becomes an election issue

Lula launched his re-election campaign on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, presenting himself as a defender of Brazil’s sovereignty amid pressure from the US administration.

The United States imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July. Lula condemned the measures as an attempt to influence Brazil’s election through economic pressure.

The Brazilian president is currently in New York, where he is preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly. On Monday, he met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for the first time.

Speaking briefly to reporters after the meeting, Lula said they had discussed issues affecting both Brazil and the United States, particularly the rising cost of living.