OMM Redaksiyası
European children born in 2025 could face almost twice as much extreme fire weather during their lifetimes as people born in 1950, according to a study published Monday in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
Under current climate policies, a child born in Europe this year could experience three additional years of extreme fire-conducive weather compared with someone born 75 years earlier, the researchers found. The study was based on 21 climate scenarios involving global warming of between 1.5°C and 3.5°C by the end of the century.
Mediterranean children face the greatest increase
The projected rise is expected to be most pronounced in the Mediterranean region. Children born there in 2025 could experience five more years of extreme fire weather than people born during the post-war baby boom.
The study defined extreme fire weather as days when conditions are more severe than the worst 5% recorded during the 1985–2014 reference period. Current policies are projected to result in about 2.6°C of global warming.
Under that scenario, children born today are expected to face 84% more exposure to extreme fire weather over their lifetimes than those born in 1950. Researchers estimated that climate change would account for 86% of the increase, while the remaining 14% would be linked to longer life expectancy.
Limiting warming could reduce exposure
Hot, dry and windy conditions enable wildfires to spread faster and burn more intensely. The researchers said these conditions have been worsened by more than a century of fossil-fuel pollution, during which Europe has warmed at roughly twice the global average rate.
If global warming were limited to 1.5°C, children born in 2025 would experience 1.3 fewer years of extreme fire weather over their lifetimes than under the current-policy scenario.
The findings come as Europe experiences increasingly severe wildfire conditions, particularly across the Mediterranean.
