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Israel’s political negotiations are underway, but the outcome remains uncertain. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost the parliamentary majority that kept him in power for the past four years, while his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, faces a difficult task in trying to replace him. CNN reported on the political deadlock.
On paper, Eisenkot has the support of 67 of the Knesset’s 120 members. Those seats belong to six parties ranging from the right wing to Arab parties, leaving the political newcomer with the challenge of persuading them to cooperate and support a government.
Netanyahu has spent decades managing disagreements among parties in his bloc and keeping his coalition together. Eisenkot does not have comparable political experience, though his bloc includes veteran politicians.
Minority government could rely on outside support
In Israel, a government normally has the backing of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members, and the leader of the party with majority support becomes prime minister.
After the 2022 election, Netanyahu had 64 seats and gained four more when another party joined his coalition. Its 68-seat majority allowed the government to complete its full term, the first to do so since 1988.
Netanyahu now has 46 lawmakers supporting him. His pre-election bloc had 53 seats, but United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party that had long been loyal to him, declined to back him. The opposition won 67 seats, including 19 held by the two Arab parties, the Joint List and Raam.
Those Arab parties are pivotal to efforts to replace Netanyahu, although many Jewish Israelis, including some of his opponents, do not regard them as legitimate partners. They could instead support a minority government from outside the coalition, giving it a parliamentary safety net.
A minority government has fewer than the 61 seats needed for a stable coalition, but can remain in office with support from lawmakers who are not cabinet members. Israeli law requires a simple majority to install a government, so one can take office if opponents are divided and abstain. Removing it requires a constructive majority of more than half the lawmakers backing an alternative government.
Eisenkot wants to form what he calls a “national emergency government” with four Jewish opposition parties, which together hold 48 seats: his own Yashar; Together, led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid; Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu; and the left-wing Democrats, led by Yair Golan. The Arab parties would stay outside the coalition but provide parliamentary support in exchange for concessions.
Israel has had minority governments before, but not immediately after an election. Yitzhak Rabin’s second government became a minority administration in 1993 after the ultra-Orthodox Shas party left the coalition. It survived for two more years with support from Arab parties outside the government.
United Torah Judaism could also affect the negotiations. Although it is a traditional Netanyahu ally, it declined to recommend him in post-election consultations with the president. It could abstain or support an Eisenkot-led minority government, broadening its support beyond the Arab parties, but would likely seek concessions.
Liberman opposes relying on Arab parties
Eisenkot’s principal obstacle is Liberman, a former defense, foreign affairs and finance minister. Liberman refuses to join a government that depends on Arab parties, arguing that a minority administration would be short-lived and strengthen Netanyahu.
He instead proposes a 61-seat coalition that includes ultra-Orthodox parties and excludes the Arab parties. Liberman believes that, once such a government is formed, some lawmakers from Netanyahu’s Likud party could defect.
Liberman has dropped his longstanding veto on ultra-Orthodox parties, but his plan conflicts with an opposition pledge to end the blanket exemption from mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men. The ultra-Orthodox parties want to preserve the exemption, while Eisenkot, Liberman and others campaigned for universal service. Any agreement would require a major ideological concession. Shas remains loyal to Netanyahu, while United Torah Judaism has signalled it may be open to other options.
The two opposition figures are coordinating their next moves, despite their differences over a minority government. Before forming a government, the opposition plans to use its parliamentary majority to replace Netanyahu’s appointed Knesset speaker and other officeholders, then begin advancing legislation.
Netanyahu has recently released two videos calling for a “national unity government,” while pressing against Jewish-Arab political cooperation. He says he wants a unity government on his terms, with him as prime minister and his entire right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc included.
Unity governments have previously been formed by Israel’s two largest parties after deadlocked elections. Following the 1984 election, Labor’s Shimon Peres and Likud’s Yitzhak Shamir governed together under a rotation agreement, sharing the premiership. The parties joined forces again after the 1988 election.
In 2020, after three inconclusive elections and during the Covid crisis, Benny Gantz joined Netanyahu in an emergency government. Gantz was due to become prime minister after 18 months, but Netanyahu sought to avoid handing over the office and refused to pass a state budget, triggering another election.
After the October 7, 2023 attack, Gantz and Eisenkot joined a war cabinet. Both resigned eight months later, citing frustration with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war and the lack of a strategy.
Eisenkot has dismissed Netanyahu’s unity appeal as “pathetic spin.” He said that if Netanyahu genuinely wanted cooperation, he should break with his far-right partners and join a government led by Eisenkot.
Netanyahu has shown no sign that he would leave his bloc. Some analysts believe he might eventually part ways with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, but not with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich or the ultra-Orthodox parties. The opposition views Netanyahu’s calls for unity mainly as an effort to undermine a government that could replace him.
Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in. Eisenkot has 28 days from last Sunday to negotiate cabinet posts, budgets and policies, and can request a 14-day extension. If he fails, another candidate receives the mandate for 28 days.
If Netanyahu receives the mandate, he is likely to try to persuade a party or individual opposition lawmakers to join his bloc. Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman and Golan have all ruled out joining him. His bloc is eight seats short, meaning he would need eight individual defectors.
If Netanyahu also fails, the mandate returns to the Knesset for another 14 days so it can propose a candidate. If that effort fails, Israel will hold another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister in the meantime.
