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Brazil will hold the first round of its presidential election on Oct. 4, with a runoff scheduled for Oct. 25 if no candidate wins more than half of valid votes. The contest is led by incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Twelve presidential tickets are registered, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. More than 158 million people are eligible to vote, including over 918,000 Brazilians living abroad. The election takes place amid deep political polarization between Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and Flavio Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party (PL).
When is the vote and who is running?
Voting will take place through Brazil’s electronic voting system. Polls are scheduled to open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. local time. If no candidate receives more than half of valid votes, the two leading candidates will compete in a second round on Oct. 25.
The general election will also determine 27 governors, 54 senators, all 513 federal deputies and state or district deputies. Voters cast six ballots: for president, governor, two senators, a federal deputy and a state or district deputy. Voting is compulsory for Brazilians aged 18 to 70; those aged 16 and 17 may vote voluntarily.
Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. He returned to the presidency in 2023 after serving from 2003 to 2010, and is running with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. His campaign has highlighted social programmes, reducing inequality, economic growth and efforts to combat organized crime.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is running for president for the first time and has the backing of his father, who is serving a prison sentence after being convicted over a coup attempt. His campaign has emphasized public security, conservative social values, a smaller state and market-oriented economic policies.
The other candidates include writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury of Avante; Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party (PSD); former Sao Paulo Governor Romeu Zema of Novo; and Renan Santos of Missao. The remaining candidates are Hertz Dias of PSTU, Edmilson Costa of PCB, Clariana Barao of Democracia Cristista, Rui Costa Pimenta of PCO, Wilson Grassi of Democrata and Samara Martins of Unidade Popular.
What do the polls show?
Recent surveys put Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in the lead, but vary on the size of their first-round gap. A Datafolha poll conducted from Sept. 22 to 24 gave Lula 40% and Flavio Bolsonaro 36%. Augusto Cury received 5%, Caiado 4% and Renan Santos 3%.
A Quaest poll conducted from Sept. 24 to 28 showed Lula at 39% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 34%. Cury and Caiado each had 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Zema 1%.
AtlasIntel, a Brazilian polling and data intelligence firm, released a survey on Sept. 29 giving Lula 45.3% and Flavio Bolsonaro 42.2%. Renan Santos had 5.2%, Cury 2%, Caiado 1.8% and Zema 0.9%. A Palver poll released the same day put Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro level at 44%, with Renan Santos at 8%.
The differences reflect variations in polling methods, sample sizes and fieldwork dates, so the surveys are not directly interchangeable.
How close could a runoff be?
Several polls point to a tight second round. Datafolha’s latest survey showed Lula at 47% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 45%, a gap within the poll’s two-point margin of error. AtlasIntel put Flavio Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6%, with a one-point margin of error, while Quaest showed them tied at 42% in a hypothetical runoff.
Support for candidates outside the two leading camps could influence a runoff. Datafolha found that 80% of voters who had already chosen a first-round candidate said they were certain of their decision. The poll also found that 45% of respondents would not vote for either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro under any circumstances.
What issues are shaping the campaign?
Public security, the economy, corruption, health, social issues and education are among voters’ main concerns. Flavio Bolsonaro’s proposals on security include creating 500,000 prison places, building five maximum-security prisons and taking tougher measures against organized crime.
Lula’s campaign has focused on reducing inequality, maintaining social programmes and combating organized crime. His 84-page programme also highlights national sovereignty and economic growth. On fiscal policy, Lula has proposed a gradual adjustment while seeking to preserve social spending; Flavio Bolsonaro’s platform calls for faster changes to public finances, revised spending rules, privatization and reduced bureaucracy.
Environmental policy is another major issue for a country with extensive natural resources and the Amazon rainforest. Lula’s programme calls for ending deforestation by 2030 and expanding environmental monitoring and conservation measures.
The election is being watched across Latin America, as Lula is one of the region’s most prominent left-wing leaders and Flavio Bolsonaro represents the political movement associated with his father. The outcome could affect Brazil’s relations with the United States, China and European countries, as well as its role in regional affairs. Argentine President Javier Milei has publicly backed Flavio Bolsonaro.
In the final campaign stretch, Flavio Bolsonaro challenged Lula to take part in a televised debate on Globo scheduled for Oct. 1, three days before the vote. Candidates are seeking to consolidate support and reach undecided voters ahead of election day.
The result will determine Brazil’s next president and shape its economic, social, environmental and foreign policies. The election will also set the composition of Congress and state governments, affecting the next administration’s ability to advance its agenda. Brazil’s role as South America’s largest country and a major agricultural and commodity producer gives the vote significance beyond its borders.
