OMM Redaksiyası
El Niño is strengthening rapidly and could drive sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific to record levels, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding around the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday.
The UN agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update puts the likelihood that El Niño will continue through February 2027 at nearly 100%, with the event expected to peak around December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño was firmly established and could become “one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
For October to December, the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach about 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. The WMO said that would be the highest level since observations began.
The previous record was 2.6C (4.7F) above normal, recorded from November 2015 to January 2016.
The WMO said the event is likely to bring above-average temperatures across large parts of the world and significantly alter rainfall patterns.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America and southeastern South America.
Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
Saulo said El Niño does not generate additional planetary heat but releases heat stored in the ocean. She warned that the ocean from which the current event is drawing heat is “the warmest we’ve ever measured it.”
National meteorological services and regional climate forums are providing regular updates to governments and humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management, the WMO said.
