OMM Newsroom
Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are in a close race ahead of Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff, according to a CNT/MDA poll released this week.
The survey found Bolsonaro with 46.8% of voter preferences and Lula with 45.9%. Among valid votes, excluding blank, spoiled and undecided ballots, Bolsonaro leads by 50.5% to 49.5%.
The poll is CNT/MDA’s first since the Oct. 4 first round, when Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, exceeded pre-election expectations to finish first with 47.03%, compared with Lula’s 45.16%. In an earlier CNT/MDA poll published a week before the first round, Bolsonaro led Lula by 52% to 48% among valid votes.
MDA surveyed 2,014 voters from Oct. 13 to 15. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
A separate Datafolha poll published on Thursday also showed the gap narrowing, with Bolsonaro’s lead falling from four percentage points to two. It put him ahead of Lula by 51% to 49% among valid votes, within the poll’s two-point margin of error.
With the campaign entering its final stretch, Bolsonaro is seeking to consolidate his father’s conservative base while appealing to a wider electorate. Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, is focusing heavily on the more than 33 million registered voters who abstained in the first round.
On Wednesday, Congress approved a constitutional amendment abolishing Brazil’s six-day workweek, a major Lula campaign pledge. The reform replaces the “6x1” schedule—six workdays followed by one day off—with a five-day workweek, gradually reducing the maximum workweek from 44 hours to 40 without cuts to salaries.
The measure passed the Senate by 75 votes to one. Bolsonaro, who had initially opposed it, changed his position and voted in favor of the amendment.
The labor reform is part of a series of late-campaign economic initiatives by Lula’s administration, including debt forgiveness for micro-entrepreneurs, a college scholarship fund, the removal of fuel taxes and a proposal for a free public transit pass.
