OMM Redaksiyası
Corn and soybean prices have risen sharply as Middle East tensions and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz tightened global fertilizer supplies, according to Anadolu Agency.
Diammonium phosphate, a key fertilizer for staple crops, rose 28.4% in the first nine months of the year to $802.50 per metric ton, up from $625 at the end of 2025. Over the same period, corn prices increased 13.3% and soybean prices 22.6%.
How shipping disruptions affect fertilizer supplies
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping has restricted access to agricultural inputs. About one-third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the waterway.
Middle East conflicts have also threatened oil supplies and raised risks at key shipping chokepoints, contributing to higher crude oil risk premiums and increasing the cost of diesel, a basic input for agricultural production. Fertilizer markets have been affected particularly by rising natural gas and ammonia prices.
Kutay Guzgor, investment research director at “Kuveyt Turk” Participation Bank, told Anadolu that supply shocks have spread beyond urea-based nitrogen fertilizers.
“Diammonium phosphate fertilizer is affected by logistical bottlenecks, and a significant portion of the sulfur and ammonia supplies vital for its production pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This creates persistent rigidity in phosphate fertilizer prices,” he said.
Farmers face higher costs and yield risks
Guzgor said logistical bottlenecks could entrench a structural decline in yield expectations as farmers scale back their planned fertilizer use for the 2026-2027 planting season.
Shipments briefly recovered during a temporary US-Iran agreement, but the subsequent collapse of the ceasefire and renewed hostilities in mid-July kept export volumes well below pre-war levels.
Alternative suppliers have helped ease the immediate shortfall by rerouting shipments over longer distances, Guzgor said, but those routes continue to raise baseline freight costs. He warned that a fresh increase in regional energy prices could push natural gas and nitrogen-based fertilizer prices higher again.
Guzgor expects elevated fertilizer and energy costs to have a decisive effect on planting areas and productivity next year. Prolonged high costs could squeeze farmers’ margins and prompt them to use less fertilizer, change how it is allocated or switch to crops that require less fertilizer.
Reducing the use of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium may lower production costs in the short term, he said, but could put pressure on yields in the period ahead.
