OMM Redaksiyası
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has gained support in two of the country’s largest electoral states, while Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro has strengthened his position in Rio de Janeiro, according to Quaest polls released on Wednesday and reported by Brazilian media.
The surveys were published 11 days before the Oct. 4 presidential election, as both candidates concentrate their campaigns on Brazil’s Southeast, which has the country’s largest concentration of voters.
The results highlight regional differences in the race. Lula retains a strong position in the Northeast, Flavio leads in Rio de Janeiro, and the two remain closely matched in major battlegrounds including Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.
Close race in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo
In Minas Gerais, Lula’s support in a first-round scenario rose to 35%, from 31% in the previous poll. Flavio Bolsonaro also gained ground, increasing from 27% to 30%. In a possible second round, the candidates are tied at 40%.
Sao Paulo is also showing a tight contest. Flavio’s first-round support rose from 31% to 34%, while Lula gained one percentage point to reach 31%, placing the two candidates within the poll’s two-point margin of error.
In a potential second round in Sao Paulo, Flavio leads with 42%, while Lula’s support increased from 33% to 36%.
Flavio widens lead in Rio de Janeiro
Rio de Janeiro has moved in the opposite direction. Flavio’s first-round support increased from 34% to 37%, while Lula’s fell from 32% to 30%. In a possible runoff, Flavio leads Lula by 44% to 36%.
The poll also showed a modest improvement in approval of Lula’s government. Approval rose from 41% in August to 44%, while disapproval declined from 52% to 49%.
Brazil election schedule
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. He previously served as president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator representing Rio de Janeiro, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and has emerged as Lula’s main challenger. His father is barred from running for office, and Flavio launched his presidential campaign in July with Jair Bolsonaro’s backing.
Brazil will hold the first round of the presidential election on Oct. 4. A second round is scheduled for Oct. 25 if no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes.
