A joint military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran may, contrary to expectations, lead to an increase in Tehran's influence in the Middle East. Classified reports from American intelligence services reveal this new reality in the region.
The Operative Information Center-OMM reports, citing Reuters and reliable sources, that the conflict has shifted the strategic balance in the Persian Gulf.
Strait of Hormuz crisis: Iran's primary leverage
According to the report, it is unlikely that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Tehran views its control over this strategic waterway as its only real leverage against the United States.
It was noted that a war aimed at weakening Iran could instead strengthen its position by demonstrating its ability to threaten vital maritime routes. Experts believe that controlling the supply of global energy resources through the strait is significantly more effective than even nuclear weapons.
US position and anticipated military risks
However, the White House has stated that US President Donald Trump is confident the strait will be opened very soon.
Analysts also warn that any possible operation the United States might undertake to establish control over the strait carries serious risks. The primary threat is Iran's capability to launch heavy strikes against American forces using missiles and UAVs from its own territory.
February 28 operation and the shifting Middle East balance
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint operation against Iran. In response, Iran launched missiles at Israeli territory. Additionally, Iranian forces attacked US military bases located in Persian Gulf countries.
Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, several countries in the region have temporarily closed their airspace. On that same day, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed as a result of the US and Israeli attacks. Prior to these events, it was officially reported that the United States had sent a 15-point plan to the Iranian authorities to end the Middle East conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global energy security, with approximately one-fifth of the world's total oil consumption passing through the passage daily. Any prolonged closure or instability in the region typically triggers significant fluctuations in global energy markets and impacts international trade routes connecting the Middle East to Asia, Europe, and North America.
