The 2026 World Cup has entered an intense phase. With 48 teams competing across 12 groups, the first round of matches has concluded.
Operative Information Center-OMM reports that the "Opta" analytical center has evaluated the teams' chances of advancing to the playoff stage based on statistical data.
In the new tournament format, the top two teams from each group automatically qualify for the Round of 32. Additionally, the eight best third-placed teams from the 12 groups will also advance to the next stage. In the event of a points tie, specific criteria established by FIFA (tie-breakers) are applied:
- Points obtained in matches between the teams;
- Goal difference in head-to-head matches;
- Number of goals scored in head-to-head matches;
- Goal difference and goals scored in all group matches;
- "Fair-play" points (yellow and red cards);
- Position in the FIFA ranking.
According to Opta's mathematical models, several major teams have a very high probability of reaching the playoffs. Specifically, teams such as Germany (99.87%), France (99.82%), Argentina (99.80%), and England (99.74%) are almost certain to qualify for the Round of 32.
Brazil (96.88%) and Spain (96.45%) are also considered favorites in their respective groups.
Statistical projections also highlight potential surprises. For instance, the Czech Republic and Turkey, teams previously expected to reach the playoffs, are now considered at higher risk of elimination based on their current performance metrics.
Conversely, analysts view the chances of teams such as Japan, Ecuador, and Scotland advancing to the knockout stages as quite realistic. The 2026 FIFA World Cup, jointly hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, marks the first time the tournament has expanded to 48 teams, significantly altering the qualification dynamics and increasing the number of matches compared to previous editions.
