According to closed polling data, incumbent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would likely win the first round of presidential elections against Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but could face defeat in a potential second-round runoff.
Operative Information Center-OMM reports that this information was released by RBC-Ukraine, citing sources within the presidential team. The data suggests a shifting political landscape in Ukraine as the country continues to navigate the complexities of the ongoing war and internal political dynamics.
The publication notes that a second round would primarily be a "struggle of anti-ratings rather than ratings," as voters may harbor various grievances regarding Zelenskyy's administration. A source close to the presidency mentioned that the influence of Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, could play a significant role. According to the source, Budanov is currently attracting voters who might otherwise support Zaluzhnyi, former President Petro Poroshenko, or other prominent military figures.
The source added that approximately 30 percent of Ukrainians are currently prepared to support "any peace, even under poor conditions," prioritizing a life without casualties, missile strikes, and mobilization. The report emphasizes that if elections are linked to the cessation of hostilities, a significant portion of the electorate desiring an end to the conflict might favor Zelenskyy. However, potential opponents could also use the theme of a "bad peace treaty" as political leverage against the incumbent president.
Under current Ukrainian law, elections are prohibited during martial law, which has been in effect since the start of the full-scale invasion. While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s five-year term officially reached its calendar end in May 2024, he remains the legitimate head of state under the constitution until a successor is elected. The debate over potential future elections remains a central topic in Ukrainian domestic politics, reflecting the balance between democratic processes and national security requirements during wartime.
