The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stern warning that the global economy is approaching a recessionary threshold due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a sustained crisis in the energy markets.
The Operative Information Center-OMM reports, citing Al-Jazeera, that these global economic risks could significantly derail current growth trajectories.
Three scenarios for oil prices and economic growth
According to IMF analysts, under the worst-case scenario, recurring shocks to the energy market could slow global economic growth from the current 3.1% to just 2%. In this critical situation, the average price of a barrel of oil is projected to reach $110 in 2026 and climb to $125 by 2027.
In the most favorable scenario, the conflict is expected to be short-lived. In this case, oil prices are anticipated to normalize by the second half of 2026, with the average price per barrel settling at approximately $82 by the end of that year.
An intermediate scenario assumes a more prolonged conflict. Should this materialize, oil prices would remain around $100 per barrel before decreasing to $75 in 2027. Under these conditions, global economic growth would slow to 2.5% this year, down from 3.4% in 2025.
Expert opinion: Which scenario is most likely?
The news outlet quotes IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who emphasized that continued disruptions in energy supplies pose a severe risk to global markets. Given the lack of a clear path toward resolving the ongoing regional conflicts, analysts suggest that the intermediate or unfavorable scenarios are currently the most probable outcomes.
The IMF, headquartered in Washington, D.C., plays a central role in monitoring global financial stability and providing economic forecasts. These latest projections underscore the vulnerability of the post-pandemic recovery to geopolitical volatility. For energy-exporting nations like Azerbaijan, such fluctuations in the global oil market remain a focal point for long-term fiscal planning and economic diversification strategies.
